Source: My iron and steel net, China steel net, fastener industry net finishing 2021-04-09
On April 7, the domestic steel market price increase narrowed, Tangshan billet factory rose 20 yuan/ton to 5060 yuan/ton.Global market US stock indexes closed down slightly, crude oil closed up, the domestic market rushed high fell, the spot quotation rose steadily, but the high transaction is not smooth, wait-and-see sentiment is thick, the price of short-term adjustment pressure.
On April 8th, the domestic steel market price was weak, and the ex-factory price of pubillet in Changli area was stable at 5060 yuan/ton.This week, steel inventory accelerated decline, but due to the rapid rise in steel prices at the beginning of the week, high market resources need time to digest, short-term adjustment into the situation.Black futures market fell mainly, only coke rose.The main market of Luchui closed at 5115, down 0.23%, above the 5-day EMA. DIF and DEA are both up. The third-line index of RSI is located at 70-78, running between the middle and upper rail of the Bulling zone.Six construction steel production enterprises raised the ex-factory price of 10-50 yuan/ton.
On April 9th, the global market fluctuated, the domestic futures continued to close down, the spot quotation was reduced partly, the market turnover is general, the northern price is stronger, the steel price is facing a small adjustment pressure in a short time.
Inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons: the production of large varieties increased by 60,000 tons on Friday, and the inventory continued to decrease by 1.6994 million tons, mainly from rebar stock decreased by 980,000 tons.Apparent demand picked up 133,000 tons compared with last week, reflecting the continued release of demand, inventory pressure continues to decline, positive trend of steel prices.
Raw material spot market recently
Imported ore
On April 7, the iron ore market price after the opening shock run, traders offer a basic steadied yesterday, some traders raised offer 5-10 yuan/ton, mainstream trade resources in the area is relatively concentrated, traders are still good, cheap shipment will is poorer, steel mills in the recent good profits, post-holiday inventory will still, but the firm is still low,There is still a game between the two.
On April 8, the spot market of imported iron ore along the Yangtze River is more active than in the early stage, the trade newspaper plate is more active, steel mill inquiries are still less.As of press time, the spot price of some imported ore is flat or slightly up 5 yuan/ton compared with 7 days, and the turnover is up together with the 7 days increase price.Steel mills, this week steel mills replenishing the pace of slightly slower, early as usual inquiry is still given priority to.Turn to the afternoon, the buyer’s mood turns stronger obviously, although the price of traders does not rise significantly but the bargaining space is significantly reduced, the steel mill inquiry intention increases.As of press time, Jiangnei PB powder 1146/1148/1150 yuan/ton, Yang Di powder 1025 yuan/ton deal.
Coke
On April 7, the coke price of mainstream regional coke enterprises increased by 100-110 yuan/ton, and some steel mills raised and reduced the coke purchase price by 100 yuan/ton for the ninth round, and the game of coke steel started.On the supply side, affected by the entry of environmental protection inspection teams in the main producing areas, individual coke enterprises have stopped coke production. Some coke enterprises in Luliang area limit their production by about 30%-60%, and the production of coke enterprises is reduced, and the supply pressure is eased.In terms of demand, the environmental protection policy in Hebei region is stricter, the demand for coke is reduced, and the inventory in the factory is reasonably high, and the coke is mainly purchased on demand.Coke market is expected to be stable in the short term weak operation.
On April 8, the domestic coke market mainstream temporarily stable operation.On the supply side, the two coke enterprises in Luliang area have stopped producing coke recently, and the speculative demand in the superposition period is increasing, and the coke enterprises’ mentality is getting better.Demand, Tangshan area environmental protection limit production is still strictly implemented, coke just need to continue to be suppressed, and the plant coke inventory at a reasonable range, the coke purchase to demand, some high inventory of steel mills on coke still have control of the arrival of the situation.Coke market is expected to temporarily stable operation in the short term.
Scrap
On April 7 scrap steel market price stable upward movement, price adjustment steelworks to rise, Rizhao steelworks recently appeared continuous pull up, the market wait and see Shagang scrap price trend.The recent billet continuous pull up, the market bullish sentiment is strong.Open today, scrap procurement prices across the country continue to rise.Drived by the good timber, steel mills to scrap procurement enthusiasm rise, pull up absorb goods, scrap prices are expected to continue to be stable in the short term.
On April 8, scrap steel market prices continue to run strong, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets in the country 3030 yuan/ton, compared with the last trading day price up 18 yuan/ton, price adjustment steel mills to rise mainly, mainstream steel mills and market scrap steel prices maintained steady operation.Scrap market bullish sentiment is strong, scrap resources liquidity is strong, the market turnover is frequent, the recent price may fluctuate wide.Scrap short – term wait and see timber, is expected to continue to shock strong operation.
Steel Market Forecast
Looking back at the steel market in 2020, from January to April, due to the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the public health event, the fundamentals are weak, and the price swings downward;Then from May to August, prices fluctuated upward and broke through the high point at the beginning of the year.From August to September, prices fluctuated, from September to October, prices fell back, and continued to rise from October to the middle of December. The fundamental reason was the over-expected demand. The weak fundamentals in September made the market generally have pessimistic expectations for the market in October and even the fourth quarter, especially after October, the pessimistic expectations of the market were absolutely dominant.Traders, terminal inventory pressure to stage low.
On the other hand, the market rigid demand continues to exist, digest the high output of steel mills at the same time, continue to digest the overall steel inventory, with the passage of time in the market, the fundamentals of the return to drive the accelerated rise in market prices, and all the above are inseparable from the demand for better than expected.In 2020, the whole market, in the context of monetary easing, superimposed manufacturing cycle, market demand side performance significantly improved, so as to comprehensively suppress the steel output wide rise brought by the bad, the supply and demand contradiction is small, resulting in steel prices continued to rise.
Affected by the high futures market pullback, the spot market price rise significantly narrowed, the transaction performance is also more general, in the high price of resources blocked after the transaction, the merchant more undercover shipping.Due to the recent rapid rise of spot prices, the price far exceeds the terminal budget level, the market is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the speculative demand is reduced.But inventory continues to be low, although may usher in a correction, but still optimistic about the late market price.
Post time: Apr-21-2021